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Cecilia Guillen, 10, left, leads Armando Valadez, 18, and her older sisters Veronica Guillen, 15, and Consuelo Guillen, 17, on a recent stroll across the Rio Grande in Las Cruces. A warmer, drier winter is predicted for New Mexico and southern Colorado, which will affect snowfall and the spring runoff that feeds into area reservoirs and the river.

LAS CRUCES - Those in southern New Mexico who rely on winter snowfall and the runoff that is the state's lifeblood are eyeing forecasts uneasily.

The reason?

A La Ni-a winter weather pattern, which tends to mean a warmer, drier winter for New Mexico and southern Colorado, is predicted.

And for farmers in Do-a Ana County, who rely on that water once it reaches Elephant Butte Lake in the spring and summer, the problem is compounded because there's not much water in the reservoirs designated for the Elephant Butte Irrigation District. Water in the reservoirs is allocated to different interests, including El Paso and Mexican irrigators.

"It was not a rosy picture," said EBID board member Tom Simpson. "Our water bank is very, very low."

To highlight the problem, James Narvaez, a hydrologist with EBID, said the district has only about 16,000 acre-feet of water in the reservoirs at the moment. That's on par with the 13,000 acre-feet that were in storage at the same time last year, he said.

Let it snow, let it snow

But it means the district and how much water it can distribute next spring will rely entirely on the snowfall in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado over the winter, Narvaez said. Because 16,000 acre-feet - in comparison to the 282,000 acre-feet the district distributed in 2010 to farmers - "is essentially zero."

How much snow is the district hoping for?

"We like to be at least above 100 percent of normal," he said.

The district

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has conservatively parceled out its water the past few years, waiting until snowmelt actually reaches the reservoir before deciding the allocation to farmers in the spring.

Plan B

For that reason, the small amount of water in storage will have an impact on growers said Bobby Kuykendall of Anthony, an onion farmer. That's because they can't wait until late May or June, when the run-off begins reaching Elephant Butte Lake - to make their planting decisions.

"Basically what that's going to mean is we're going to rely on the sub-surface water wells for at least the first five months of 2011," he said.

Simpson, too, said farmers will have to turn to ground wells or buy water from a neighbor, if possible, to survive a short water year.

Some farmers have said that more of the Do-a Ana County's acreage could be planted with cotton in 2011, which uses less water on average than other crops.

Kuykendall, who farms about 800 acres in the South Valley, said he does have about 125 acres with no access to ground wells. It will likely remain fallow, thanks to the current water outlook, he said.

Will I pay more?

Kuykendall said the additional costs that come from pumping groundwater, such as natural gas or electricity bills, will mean a smaller profit margin for farmers. But he said it's not likely to result in larger prices for consumers, because most markets are national or even global, meaning Do-a Ana County's influence on prices isn't significant.

Rex Gallant, a retired Coast Guard captain who owns Brother Wind Sails, a sailboat charter company in Elephant Butte, said he's actually noticed water at Elephant Butte Lake rise a few feet since irrigation stopped this year.

He said an ideal water level would be half-way between the current level and that of the late '90s, when Elephant Butte was near capacity. If it gets too high, he said, that promotes big waves, which can be dangerous.

"Right now, it is still low, but if you were to put it up when it was really high - that's way too high," he said. "You just get rollers up there."

Diana M. Alba can be reached at (575) 541-5443