Font ResizeLAS CRUCES - The complete findings of the 2010 census for Las Cruces and Do a Ana County must await the April release of more data from the U.S. Census Bureau, but one thing is clear: federal money is on the line.
For now city leaders and economists are cautiously optimistic about what the decennial census may have to tell us.
"Studies have shown that 25 percent of our economy comes from the soldiers at White Sands Missile Range and Fort Bliss," said New Mexico State University economist Chris Erickson. "If anything, that's a good sign of growth."
In periodic updates on the condition of the city, state and U.S. economies since the economic recession began about three years ago, Erickson has pointed out that the city's economy has stayed relatively healthy because of the region's dependence on the federal government - specifically the military. An influx of thousands of soldiers to Fort Bliss has helped southern New Mexico's economy, as has the establishment of the 2nd Engineer Battalion at White Sands.
Last week U.S. Census Bureau officials announced the first set of 2010 census data.
In New Mexico, the population increased to about 2.1 million in 2010, up from 1.8 million in 2000, leaving the Land of Enchantment the 36th-most populated state in the union, the same as a decade ago.
Whatever the forthcoming census data on individual communities ultimately reveals, Erickson said he doesn't forecast a decline in the military, its programs, and its influence on
"The general thrust is that federal spending of the military is expected to continue, at least for the short term," Erickson said. "Beyond that, it becomes gray and a little harder to forecast. There's so many variables that have to be considered."
Incoming City Manager Robert Garza is a little more hesitant about predicting the future. He and others will have to continue diligent lobbying efforts for federal funds.
"We're going to have to closely monitor all of those developments as they play out," Garza said. "It's no big secret that the city relies heavily on federal funding to maintain the programs that are offered to residents. From what I've experienced, the census is definitely going to impact the amount of funding and the kinds of programs the city will be able to offer."
Federal funding, based on the census, could determine how much money the city gets for programs, like senior nutrition. Federal funds are also based on numerous demographics of a community, such as poverty levels, gender and ethnicity. As the city's population has increased in double-digit percentages the past 20 years, that has meant more money available for programs administered by the city.
Davin Lopez, executive director of the Mesilla Valley Economic Alliance, also is keeping a wait-and-see attitude.
"It's really hard, for now, to forecast just how all of that goes," Lopez said. "But there's going to be a lot of interest in all of information that comes from those census figures. Data from the census is very closely tied to the amount of federal funding a community receives. The multitude of programs a community could be eligible for hinges a lot on amount of federal funding that becomes available, and the basis for those funding levels comes from the census."
Lopez added there is no "magical number" in terms of population that determines whether industry or private businesses decide to locate in a community.
"Every company has its own established criteria for locating in a specific community," Lopez said. "For example, if Trader Joe's were to locate only in cities that had a population of 100,000 or more, then why is there one in Santa Fe. There are all kinds of variables, other than just census, that factor into a company's decision to locate in any specific community."
Erickson said increases in the city's population the past two decades lends optimism that additional federal dollars could be on the way in years to come. Las Cruces' estimated population last year of 93,452 is an increase of 20.5 percent from the 2000 census figure of 74,267, and 33.5 percent higher than the 1990 population of 62,126.
With the federal government experiencing a huge budget deficit, those growth figures could be a big factor in what programs are funded, and at what levels.
The U.S. Constitution calls for a census of the nation's population every 10 years. This must be done to equally divide the 435 voting districts in the House of Representatives among the states. Each member represents, on average, about 700,000 people. The states with the biggest populations have more congressional seats than less populated states, like New Mexico.
Steve Ramirez can be reached at (575) 541-5452.
Impact
•Figures from the 2010 census for Las Cruces are anticipated to be released by April.
•Census data will have a strong influence on the amount of federal funding in Las Cruces and Do a Ana County.
•Because of the area's federal government's strong presence, particularly White Sands Missile Range and Fort Bliss, the city's economy is expected to remain strong, at least in the short term.
•Census data could also determine to what extent, if any, the city and county would qualify for federal programs such as new market tax credit and HUBZone programs.
