LAS CRUCES - U.S. Census numbers released last week showed that Do-a Ana County was the second-fastest growing county in the state, while Las Cruces was the third-fastest growing among municipalities.

Census officials stressed that an accurate count is important to give residents their strongest voice in the democratic process. So, will Do-a Ana County's growth be enough to result in new representation in the state Legislature, after the dust settles in a redistricting process slated for later this year?

Sort of.

Now, seven House seats have territory in Do-a Ana County, including one that straddles Otero and Do-a Ana counties. Also, the county has five Senate seats; one is shared between Sierra and Do-a Ana counties and another covers mostly Otero County.

There likely will be additional lawmakers representing Do-a Ana County, though the county is not likely to gain a new district exclusive to itself, said Brian Sanderoff, an Albuquerque demographer.

A look now

New Mexico law caps the number of House seats at 70 and Senate seats at 42. So it's not possible for state officials to create a new district and add it to the ranks of those in Do-a Ana County or any other area.

But lawmakers will adjust the boundaries of existing voting districts, based on the 10-year Census numbers, with the goal, in theory, of redistributing the population equally among them, Sanderoff said.

"So, in those districts that grew a lot, the boundaries will shrink, to have the

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same number of people as all the other districts," he said. "Districts that have not kept pace with population growth have to expand their boundaries to pick up more people so that they, too, can represent the same number of all the other districts."

Boundary shift

Sometimes, in a case of extreme growth, the districts within a given county can shrink so much in area that they draw in a new Senate or House district from another place, relocating it exclusively within the boundaries of the county. But Sanderoff said there wasn't enough population growth in Do-a Ana County to warrant that, either in the House or Senate.

Even so, Do-a Ana County's growth was faster than the state's average, meaning some of its districts are likely to become smaller geographically, Sanderoff said. And neighboring counties, which saw slower growth, will see their districts expand geographically.

"Any time you look at redistricting, you can't look at your city or your county in a vacuum," he said. "You need to recognize that you're part of a region, and you're part of the state."

Sanderoff's firm, Research and Polling Inc., has a contract with the state to do the number-crunching work that will serve as a basis for redistricting.

According to Sanderoff, the ideal population for a House district is derived by taking the state's population and dividing it by the number of House seats. The same is done for the Senate.

Those figures are 29,417 people for a House district, and 49,028 for a Senate district, based on last week's Census data for New Mexico.

Sanderoff gave an example of one redistricting possibility. State Sen. John Arthur Smith, D-Deming, holds the District 35 seat, which covers Hidalgo, Luna and a portion of Sierra County. Sanderoff said that district's boundaries may balloon to include a part of Do-a Ana County.

"To that extent, Do-a Ana County gains representation in that, part of the county might be included in legislative seats from other counties," he said. "And that legislator, who might be elected from Luna County or Sierra County or Otero County - if they're a smart politician - would have to be responsive to the needs of the county."

Political play

While Sanderoff is involved with drafting proposed redistricting plans, the Legislature has final say on redrawing district lines for congressional, state lawmaker and public regulation commissioner districts.

Those decisions - fraught with potential for political contention - will be made during a special session, possibly in September.

State Rep. Joni Gutierrez, D-Mesilla, said she's hoping redistricting is carried out absent the politics.

"You just look at numbers of people, and you don't look at voting records," she said.

Gutierrez said another goal is to keep communities intact.

Federal races

New Mexico is not expected to gain any new seats in the U.S. House.

When it comes to adjusting the boundaries of the three congressional districts, Sanderoff said it's unlikely Do-a Ana County would see any change, unless the Legislature decides to completely upend the current boundaries.

County, city seats

Do-a Ana County and the city of Las Cruces also have contracted with Sanderoff to do base work for their own redistricting processes.

Do-a Ana County commissioners are set to appoint a five-member advisory panel on Tuesday that will generate commission seat redistricting proposals. The county commission will have final say on which plan is adopted.

Officials with the city of Las Cruces, meanwhile, have said they expect to have their redistricting plan in place in July, before the municipal election.

Diana M. Alba can be reached at (575) 541-5443

Population of New Mexico counties

2000 2010 Change in Percent

number change

Bernalillo 556,678 662,564 105,886 19%

Do-a Ana 174,682 209,233 34,551 19.8%

Santa Fe 129,292 144,170 14,878 11.5%

Sandoval 89,908 131,561 41,653 46.3%

San Juan 113,801 130,044 16,243 14.3%

Valencia 66,152 76,569 10,417 15.7%

McKinley 74,798 71,492 -3,306 -4.4%

Chaves 61,382 65,645 4,263 6.9%

Lea 55,511 64,727 9,216 16.6%

Otero 62,298 63,797 1,499 2.4%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau